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Other Estimates (Updated March 12, 2014)

The model that generates the UDS also produces a number of other useful quantities. These estimates can assist researchers interested in understanding, and evaluating, the various existing measures that form the foundation of the UDS. The model provides estimates of each rater's reliability, estimates of the extant measures' score cutoffs, all normalized to a single latent scale, and estimates of democracy experts' perceptions of individual democracy scores along the same underlying scale.

We furnish all data in compressed comma separated format. Common software, such as gzip and WinZip, can decompress the files. Users may download the estimates in summary format, or may opt to obtain 1000 or 5000-draw samples from the posterior distributions of the parameters.

Please note that we updated these scores on March 12, 2014. The new scores, while similar to those previously available, reflect a comprehensive update to the UDS that extends the scores through 2012 and adds a new measure of democracy to the underlying analysis. To help users assess the impact of the update, we have replicated figures 4 and 5 from the original article, using the new data. Previous releases of the scores, including the version originally reported in the companion article, are available in our archive.

Rater Reliability

An especially useful byproduct of the model used to generate the UDS is the estimation of the constituent raters' measurement error variance. These estimates provide a metric with which one can judge the relative reliability of the ten democracy scores used in the creation of the UDS.

Error Variance Summary Scores Error Variance 1000 Draw Sample Error Variance 5000 Draw Sample

Summary and posterior sample files are formatted as follows:

Summary FilePosterior Sample Files
ColumnDescription
rater The measure the error variance comes from
mean Error variance posterior mean
sd Error variance posterior standard deviation
median Error variance posterior median
pct025 Error variance posterior 2.5 percentile
pct975 Error variance posterior 97.5 percentile
ColumnDescription
rater The measure the error variance comes from
mean Error variance posterior mean
sd Error variance posterior standard deviation
sigmasq1 The first draw from the posterior distribution of the error variance
sigmasq2 The second draw from the posterior distribution of the error variance
...
sigmasqn The nth draw from the posterior distribution of the error variance

Rater Cutoffs

The democracy measures underlying the UDS all provide ordinal or continuous scores, rating country-years as more or less democratic. Unfortunately, these scales are not directly comparable and it is difficult, for example, to understand what a score of five on the Polity IV scale means on Freedom House's metric. The rater cutoff estimates found here are all normalized to the same underlying latent scale, making these sorts of comparisons possible.

Cutoff Summary Scores Cutoff 1000 Draw Sample Cutoff 5000 Draw Sample

Summary and posterior sample files are formatted as follows:

Summary FilePosterior Sample Files
ColumnDescription
rater The measure the cutoff comes from
cut The ordinal level of the cutoff, starting from 1
mean Cutoff posterior mean
sd Cutoff posterior standard deviation
median Cutoff posterior median
pct025 Cutoff posterior 2.5 percentile
pct975 Cutoff posterior 97.5 percentile
ColumnDescription
rater The measure the cutoff comes from
cut The ordinal level of the cutoff, starting from 1
mean Cutoff posterior mean
sd Cutoff posterior standard deviation
gamma1 The first draw from the posterior distribution of the cutoff
gamma2 The second draw from the posterior distribution of the cutoff
...
gamman The nth draw from the posterior distribution of the cutoff

Rater Perceptions

The model underlying the UDS generates estimates of how the constituent raters perceive the level of democracy in given country-years, on the scale of the UDS. These estimates are useful for identifying especially unusual ratings in the extant measures. We provide perception estimates for all 13 of the measures upon which the UDS are based.

Arat Summary Scores Arat 1000 Draw Sample Arat 5000 Draw Sample
Bollen Summary Scores Bollen 1000 Draw Sample Bollen 5000 Draw Sample
BLM Summary Scores BLM 1000 Draw Sample BLM 5000 Draw Sample
EIU Summary Scores EIU 1000 Draw Sample EIU 5000 Draw Sample
F. House Summary Scores F. House 1000 Draw Sample F. House 5000 Draw Sample
Hadenius Summary Scores Hadenius 1000 Draw Sample Hadenius 5000 Draw Sample
Mainwaring Summary Scores Mainwaring 1000 Draw Sample Mainwaring 5000 Draw Sample
Munck Summary Scores Munck 1000 Draw Sample Munck 5000 Draw Sample
PACL Summary Scores PACL 1000 Draw Sample PACL 5000 Draw Sample
Polity Summary Scores Polity 1000 Draw Sample Polity 5000 Draw Sample
Polyarchy Summary Scores Polyarchy 1000 Draw Sample Polyarchy 5000 Draw Sample
PRC Summary Scores PRC 1000 Draw Sample PRC 5000 Draw Sample
Vanhanen Summary Scores Vanhanen 1000 Draw Sample Vanhanen 5000 Draw Sample

Summary and posterior sample files are formatted as follows:

Summary FilesPosterior Sample Files
ColumnDescription
country Country name
year Observation year
cowcode Correlates of War project country code
mean Rater perception posterior mean
sd Rater perception posterior standard deviation
median Rater perception posterior median
pct025 Rater perception posterior 2.5 percentile
pct975 Rater perception posterior 97.5 percentile
ColumnDescription
country Country name
year Observation year
cowcode Correlates of War project country code
mean Rater perception posterior mean
sd Rater perception posterior standard deviation
t1 The first draw from the posterior distribution of the rater perception
t2 The second draw from the posterior distribution of the rater perception
...
tn The nth draw from the posterior distribution of the rater perception